The late US Secretary of State, General Colin Powell, popularised the “Pottery Barn rule” – named after the American chain store, as a guide to political consequences for strategic decisions, both taken and avoided.
It went along the lines of “if you break it, you fix it; if you break it, you own it”. This was in reference to the consequences of the 2003 decision by President George W Bush to invade Iraq.
Johannesburg’s water crisis which has seen residents of the now benighted City of Gold, deprived for days, even weeks of this essential for life will have no difficulty in locating who is responsible for the entirely avoidable disaster. It is the politicians who rule the city and the province, headed in both instances by the ANC.
Wearing no clothes
Voters might forget many things but are unlikely to forget who deprived them for weeks on end of the basic services – or the simple assumption that when you open a tap something will emerge from it.
Johannesburg’s seventh mayor in three years, Dada Morero, rules the city, or not, if the water crisis, pothole-strewn roads and uncollected rubbish are anything to go by, in an alliance. His collaborators in the misgovernance of “the world-class African city of the future”, to quote his misbegotten words from his August inaugural speech, are the Economic Freedom Fighters( EFF ) and ActionSA, and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) among its larger members. They likely will be also held to account for the non-delivery of essential services, never mind the mocking words of “a world class African city”, when even a child will tell that these city emperors wear no clothes.
However, there are several key differences between the ANC on the one hand, and the notional opposition parties which props it up in power in both Johannesburg and Tshwane.
A jazz pianist once noted, “you can play on the white keys or the black keys, or the white keys and the black keys but you can’t play on the cracks in between”.
Yet it is precisely in that crack that Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA is playing right now: its virulent anti-Democratic Alliance (DA) and increasingly black nationalism posture, which seems to animate its entire strategy and most of its tactics, suggests there might be an audience of appreciation for this. But that prospect is already crowded out by much larger and more effective players, who already – and with far more resources and reach – offer unbridled race politics garnered with layers of populism as the recipe for electoral success.
Both the MK Party and fractions within the ANC (such as provincial Premier Panyaza Lesufi) have far more reach, power and credibility with this mood music than Herman Mashaba. They too have identifiable constituencies outside Johannesburg and Pretoria’s suburbs where most of ActionSA’s votes emerged in the last municipal elections.
The EFF is facing its own long dark night of the soul as the MK Party steals its electoral support, some of its leading lights and most of its political programme. Thus, the EFF faces potential long-term oblivion since the key differentiation which separated it from other political players is increasingly blurred by the emergence of the MKP and its ability to poach both the politics of protest and populism and increasingly some personalities from the EFF.
Yet there is one common linkage which joins the EFF, MKP, ActionSA and even the PA (whose discrete coloured constituency otherwise sets it apart from the others): none of them are “institutional” parties.
Institutional vs deinstitutional
I was reminded of the crucial distinction between “institutional” and “deinstitutional” entities just the other day listening to a fascinating podcast “Unholy”.
In an interview with hosts Jonathan Freedland and Yonit Levi, foreign affairs maven Richard Haass was discussing the recent demise of the 50-year rule of the al-Assad family in Syria (son Bashar who fled the country to Russia took over the country when his father Hafaz al-Assad died in 2000). Haass indicated that this proved that even long-lived political dynasties are essentially brittle when personalised rule replaces – or totally dominates – institutional arrangements.
In Haass’ view, that, too, is the differentiator between the two great losers in the demise of the Assads in Syria: Russia and Iran, which both armed and assisted the Assads. He suggests that Iran, which is properly institutionalised via both regularly electing new presidents and through the deep if tyrannical hold of the Mullahs in society, is very different from Russia. It is essentially today a personalised kleptocracy moulded in the image and at the whim of one man, Vladimir Putin. Remove Putin from the top and the entire brittle enterprise could end.
Apply the lens of “institutional versus deinstitutional” to view local politics and it provides a study of contrasts.
On the one hand, and here the range is from 11 years (EFF) to just one year (MKP), and you see that the EFF, MKP, PA, ActionSA have only had one leader.
In each case, to the extent that any of them (and most don’t) bother with real internal democracy and properly contested leadership elections, it is almost unimaginable to see any of them absent their current leaders.
Another long-standing SA party, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), was so wrapped up in the image of its founding leader, the late Mangosuthu Buthelezi, who led it for over 40 years, that its recent election campaign was conducted with images of him on its posters, notwithstanding he died six months before the May 2029 elections.
‘Dare not linger’
By contrast, the two largest parties in the country, the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), are properly institutionalised. Each since 1994 has had four different leaders, and soon enough a fifth will emerge in both.
The average length in office in both parties is around eight years at the top. Of course, the same problems which Johannesburg’s rulers face when they confront their thirsty and angry voters at the polls in 2026 will confront the parties to the GNU in five years’ time.
Unless there is a significant rise in the growth rate and a big dent in the unemployment rate, even the most institutionalised parties will face an ugly reckoning with the people.
So “dare not linger”, to quote the words of Nelson Mandela, seems especially apt for a Christmas message addressed directly to those in charge.
And before planning a “national dialogue” and other flights of jargon laden talk fests beloved by our president, fix the basics and maintain the infrastructure. That is the message crying out from Johannesburg’s empty taps.
