G20 glory vs kitchen table reality: Voters don’t care for foreign policy wins

“There are few votes in foreign affairs,” was the response I received from a local politician. This, after I enquired why his party had not taken issue with a government statement I thought contradicted his party’s worldview.

President Cyril Ramaphosa appears to have a different view on this. Judging from his (mis)use of the national broadcaster on Sunday evening to offer heaps of praise for the success of the recent G20 meeting here. He coupled it with a warning against “groups spreading lies about genocide and land grabs” here.

These lies, he advised, endanger the national interest and weaken relations with key partners, such as the United States.

He did not, however, aver that there was a single policy of his own government, from land expropriation to BEE, that might have contributed to the downward spiral in the US-SA relationship.

Ramaphosa clearly believes, in a story as old as David v Goliath, that the plucky little fellow aiming his slingshot at the lumbering bullying giant is smart politics. Even in the case of Donald Trump and the arsenal of economic weapons possessed by the United States and its mercurial and vengeful president, the current version of the old story might have a less happy ending.

In my column last week, I concluded in the afterglow of the G20 summit here, that “all politics is local”. This was a formula offered by legendary Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tip O’Neill, a Massachusetts Democratic ward heeler who wielded the gavel to significant effect during the presidency of Ronald Reagan.

My comment attracted the ire of the one-seat-wonder party here, GOOD, whose secretary-general, Brett Herron, accuses me of being “a misopratriot” (sic), averring that, “He can’t ignore the success of the G20, so his only option is to say okay, but it was meaningless.”

The plain reading of what I actually said was that whatever outcomes were achieved, and these are indeed contestable, it was unlikely to sway voters one way or the other.

On cue last week, just three days after “the success of the G20” in Johannesburg, the ANC lost three of its seats in local by-elections, literally left, right and centre, to the MK, PA and DA respectively. Since Mr Herron’s party sat out the contests, we cannot test the validity of his assertion against me. But there was no G20 bounce for Ramaphosa’s party in these elections.

One of Tip O’Neill’s successors as House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, recently provided a useful update on his view of politics. She advised in 2022:

“The election will be decided at the kitchen table, as American families determine who they can trust to fight for them in this challenging moment.”

In the congressional elections that year, against expectations, Pelosi’s party performed well. But in the general election two years later in 2024, when Democrats lost across the board, the Republican sweep was attributed in some measure to economic angst with the spiralling cost of living, measured by rising inflation and stagnating incomes.

The US is the world’s preeminent capitalist democracy, but it also serves as proof of the Marxist view that the economic base determines the political superstructure. Clearly, this is an oversimplification, and ethnicity, identity and social views also weigh on political choices. But economic well-being and its opposite are very powerful drivers of election results.

New York City is the richest city in the United States, home of Wall Street and to the largest Jewish population outside the State of Israel.

So, it seemed unlikely winning ground for a self-styled Democratic Socialist highly critical of Israel and offering a menu of policies borrowed more from Hugo Chavez than Milton Friedman. But the emphatic win of Zohran Mamdani, now the city’s youngest mayor in modern history and the first Muslim in the post, sent shockwaves around the world.

Mamdani’s socialism, though, was presented with unthreatening charm and elan (imagine if Julius Malema tried a smile instead of a snarl?) and was powered by digital savvy on Snapchat and Instagram that overwhelmed his rivals.

And of course, New York City, which does on occasion choose Republicans, is the bluest of blue cities and states. However, on the same day that Mamdani clinched his win last month, two other Democrats, in Virginia and New Jersey, less reliably Democratic than New York, won significant victories in their contests for governor.

All three won by focusing and campaigning on the issue of “affordability” or the kitchen table issues that Nancy Pelosi determined is the place where elections are won or lost.

If you want a simple explanation of why a tanking (in terms of receding popularity) Trump exempted certain SA citrus products from the punitive 30% tariff he imposed on our exports, it is the rise in grocery prices in America that is switching off his voters. Tariffs are, in effect, a tax on local consumers.

And having dismissed Mamdani as a “Communist lunatic”, Trump recently hosted him to a warm meeting at the White House. He might love winners, regardless of ideology, but the same populist rage that fuelled his own improbable ascent found a fellow traveller in the form of Mamdani.

There is a fascinating local debate on the merits here of BEE and its continuance. Many BEE advocates suggest that its continuance is essential for political peace and economic wellbeing. Though none of them have produced a jot of evidence to show how and why its ever widening ambit and enforcement have advanced positive economic outcomes. Statistics, from growth to employment, suggest the exact opposite.

The same polls that suggest that ANC political support is in decline, also offer a window into what voters want, rather than what the political overlords suggest is good for them.

A national representative opinion survey by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) published last month indicated that, overwhelmingly, “socioeconomic frustrations and aspirations far outweigh identity-based grievance”, according to the institute.

The poll showed that 38% of South Africans identified jobs as their top priority, followed by corruption (10%) and crime (9%). By contrast, only 2% mentioned racism and 4% cited Black Economic Empowerment. Foreign policy did not rate a mention.

“These patterns,” the IRR said, “were consistent across all racial groups, a striking confirmation that the overwhelming majority of South Africans share a deracialised pragmatic set of national priorities.”

More striking perhaps is how government policy and practice move almost in inverse proportion to the needs and views of its voters.

Never mind Nancy Pelosi’s warning on the power of the kitchen table, check the latest concoction cooked up the government here in the form of a new Business Licensing Bill. In the words of policy expert, the Centre for Development and Enterprise’s Ann Bernstein:

“The Bill will throttle what little growth SA can still expect, even as it criminalises people seeking to expand livelihoods. It may well be the most anti-business, anti-entrepreneurship piece of legislation to emerge in decades.”

And since business-bashing bills have been the hallmark of the past three decades, this is a singular achievement.

The DA, ironically having a deputy minister in the same ministry, called on the minister of small business development to “withdraw the bill immediately”.

In his Sunday evening address, Ramaphosa also noted, “It is essential that we work together so that we can attract investment, promote inclusive growth and create jobs.”

Does he not read the draft legislation produced by his own Cabinet members? The licencing bill requires a licence be obtained for any business decreed by the minister to require one. Criminal sanctions, including six months to two years jail time are provided for.

Crazy in terms of jobs and economic growth on the one hand, but utterly consistent with the ideology that in all matters and circumstances, ‘the state knows what’s best.”

But a lot of evidence suggests that voters have a very different view of matters. Doubtless, the local government elections next year will tell us who is right.